No easy choice. For Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood and Shafik, a general of the old regime, the post of President is a huge prize which each of them is already claiming. But the Supreme Presidential Elections Commission is yet to declare a winner. That Commission, headed by Judge Sultan, who also heads the Supreme Constitutional Court, is still deciding on more than 400 charges of voting irregularities levelled by the two men and their supporters.
In the meantime, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the de facto executive of Egypt since the deposing of Mubarak, has dissolved Parliament, reinstated emergency laws, promulgated an interim constitution, decided upon which powers cannot be vested in a new President including civilian oversight over the military, and warned that Tahrir Square cannot be permanently occupied by protesters.
As a result, the expected happened. The Brotherhood demonstrated; the dissolution of Parliament was challenged as illegal; the Constitutional Court was called an instrument of manipulation in the hands of SCAF; the Beads declared that they would surly protect the January 25 Revolution from the Bayonets; and the Bayonets barricaded Parliament pending the holding of new parliamentary elections based on a constitution which is to be drafted by its own chosen 100 member-strong constituent assembly. Add to all of these destabilizing factors the possibility of Mubarak's death in the short term.
The question thus arises: is Egypt hovering on the brink of a civil war? In human affairs, nothing is impossible. But an Egypt plunging into a classic civil war is highly improbable.
The factors militating against that grim prospect are too numerous to count, Foremost among these factors are: orderly governance is an ingrained habit in Egypt for thousands of years; the armed forces are conscripted, representing all of Egypt, with loyalty belonging not to regions but to Egypt as both a homeland and a concept; Egypt's cosmopolitanism is enduring, thanks to the country being at the cross-roads of Europe, Asia and Africa; the recent moves by SCAF (some call it 'the soft coup d'etat') is a reminder to the Muslim Brotherhood that its newly-won freedom could be extinguished and Al-Azher's weight cannot be discounted in keeping the Copts, especially after the passing of the great unifier Pope Shenouda, integrally engaged in Muslim/Christian harmony.
The adage inherited from Pope Shenouda, in whose honor an Egyptian postal stamp has been issued, goes like this: "Egypt is not a country in which we live. Egypt is a country which lives in us."
Yes the stalemate resulting from the need to preserve the Revolution and the need to ensure the security of Egypt is very unsettling to millions of Egyptians. Rumors have therefore crowded out credible information. Even the repeated declarations by the SCAF that they are keen on handing over powers to an elected president are met with deep scepticism. The date for the transfer of power to a civilian government is now said to have moved from June 30 to "after the election of a President."
The big question is: would that President be a representative of the Beards or of the Bayonets? The answer shall determine the future of the Arab Spring, not only in Egypt, but also within the Arab homeland.
The cover pages of two Egyptian newspapers reflect the views of the majority of Egyptian masses. The cover of Al-Mossawwar reads: "We shall not be governed by the Supreme Guide (of the Brotherhood). And the cover of Sawt Al-Azhar (the voice of Al-Azhar) declares: "The Al-Azhar Rector says: Egypt is a democratic State: Neither Secular nor Religious. The people need to banish the world 'exclusion.' Women's rights should be observed. Eliminate any difference between a Muslim and a Copt."
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