Monday, July 9, 2012

The MORSI CODE: Reading the Tea Leaves of the MORSI Presidency

He is a historic figure.  Not because of charisma, but because in him Egypt found its first-ever elected President.  You may not call him "Abu-Ahmed" (Ahmed's father).  Only his wife may be called "Umm Ahmed" (Ahmed's Mother).  Their oldest son is called Ahmed.

President Muhammad Morsi hails from the Sharkia Province (Governerate).  I know the Province well, having myself hailed from there.  In Zagazig, its capital, located about 175 miles northeast of Cairo, I was educated till graduation from high school.  The large El-Ayouty clan is sprawled over there, especially in a town near Zagazig called Kanayat.  Known to all Egyptians for its extreme generosity, it is rumored that when the railroad from Cairo to Ismailia and Suez was built, the villagers of one hamlet invited all the passengers of one train to a meal.

Already there are indications that Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and an engineer who received his Ph.D. from California (two of his sons are Americans by birth), will try to assert his presidential powers against the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF).  SCAF has symbolically, on June 30, turned power over to him, but retained residual powers causing the Arab press to call him "fat-free President."

From his early pronouncements, one can read an early Morsi Code.  His priorities are the needs of the masses: alleviating traffic congestion in Cairo; subsidizing the price of bread, sugar and cooking oil; alleviating the burdens of life in the slums which have over years of neglect by 60 years of military dictatorship smothered the access points to once beautiful Cairo.

His first meetings as President were with the families of those who lost their lives during the January 25, 2011 revolution; with the Coptic leadership; with the young revolutionaries; with women groups; and with nearly all the leaders of the active political and religious spectrum which has sprung to existence from Tahrir Square.  In Tahrir, he took his first oath of office, calling that historic Square the birthplace of legitimacy of people's power.

Morsi is stressing Egypt's respect for international agreements, obviously including the 1979 Treaty of Peace between Egypt and Israel.  He is showing strong inclinations toward selecting an independent personality (meaning outside the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood) for Prime Minister.  Two of the Deputies to the President might be a Copt and a woman.  The main thrust is towards a government of national unity.

Huge gaps remain unfilled in Egypt's governance.  Parliament has been dissolved by a judicial decision enforced by SCAF prior to June 30; the constituent assembly of 100 members has not yet begun its drafting of a constitution for the new Egypt; and elections for the lower chamber of Parliament have not yet been decided upon. It is still unclear whether the dissolution of Parliament applied to both the lower and upper Chambers.  President Morsi's powers and prerogatives in this period of constitutional no-man's land are undefined.

In the meantime, there is plenty of symbolism to fill some of these gaps: Moving from a modest apartment to the opulence of Mubarak's palace was jarring, especially for Umm Ahmed; having the Presidential guard standing in the hot summer's sun was ended by Morsi; praying in the palace for security reasons on Fridays, was negated by Morsi in favor of praying at Al-Azhar; taking his second oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court was effected, following much debate against it.  Those who were against that venue cited that all the judges were Mubarak's appointees.  Those who were for it insisted that taking the oath before that Court manifested respect for the law.

The Morsi administration seems to be searching for identity which would not be characterized by Islamism.  So far, it seems to be free from the urge for revenge for past oppression.  In fact nothing has been said so far in regard to the trials of Mubarak and sons.  But a famous Arab poem says: "The coming days shall reveal to you what your knowledge did not encompass."

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