My own response is: "The Theory of Evolution." During my senior year at Zagazig High School, Sharkia, Egypt, I was, as a science major, one of 20 national contestants in that theory. Studying late at night, aided by the light of a kerosene lamp at our village family home, I plowed through 4 books in English on that theory. It was a very absorbing task, but it taught me a life-long lesson: evolve or perish. It is a principle based on "the survival of the fittest."
Here is my take on the evolution of President El-Sisi, which may also be anchored on what our British professors taught us at that great high school: "Circumstances Alter Cases."
El-Sisi rightly rode the crest of mass popular anger at the horrible year of Islamist rule in Egypt (June 2012-July 2013). Yes the Muslim Brotherhood of the now deposed President Morsi, a fellow Sharkawi for whom I voted in 2012, believed in "One Man, One Vote!!" But once in power, that principle became, for all intents and purposes: "One Man, One Vote, One Time." Their contract with the voters proved to be a sham.
How does the abject failure of Islamist rule in Egypt relate to the evolution of El-Sisi's political though as the 7th president of modern Egypt? (He is #7 after Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak, Tantawi: (through SCAF); Morsi, Mansour). Look at what is happening now in Gaza (Hamas v. Israel). During the Islamist regime, Hamas revelled in earning $450 millions annually by invading Sinai through 1500 tunnels. That was the biggest smuggling operation in modern history. Arms, drugs, terrorists, cars, and house-hold equipment flowed unabashedly. Egypt's army, police and other personnel including large battalions of Border Guards (Silah Al-Hodoud) suffered the humiliation of Morsi's orders not to interfere with Hamas illegal operations.
Then suddenly, on July 3, 2013, the hands of these nationalist forces were freed to defend Sinai from Hamasawi attempts to transfer rocketing Israel from Gaza to Sinai. The tsunami of Egypt's defensive measures in Sinai crippled Hamas financially and led to a no-content unity Palestinian government between Abbas and Hamas. And with the heinous crimes of murdering young Israelis and a Palestinian youth, which transformed the conflict from a territorial conflict into an ethnic and religious conflict, Egyptian Sinai stood by, minding its own peace from terrorist aggression. The Rafah Crossing remained closed, except for limited purposes of Palestinian pilgrimage to Mecca.
With the daily uneven duel between Hamas, through rockets, and Israel through daily bombardment of nearly anything that moves, El-Sisi ordered the reopening of the Rafah Crossing to allow injured Palestinians to be properly treated in a specially reserved hospital at El-Arish. The evolutionary thinking of El-Sisi and his team made humanitarianism towards besieged Gazans trump their anger at Hamasawi murderous intervention in Egypt's internal affairs. That intervention was aided by Qatar and other outside mischief makers.
As to ISIS, the new phantom so-called Islamic Caliphate based in Mousul, Iraq, and Al-Rakkah, Syria, there could be no more articulated hostility toward that fictitous entity than that of Egypt's secularist community. Al-Azhar has declared in August, 2011, that Islam does not admit of a State based solely on religion; the Coptic Church watches in horror as Christians in Iraqi and Syrian ISIS-controlled territories are being murdered or chased out of their ancestral lands; and the Gulf States, new and valuable allies of the new Egypt, feel the jitters of an approaching Sunni-Shii war of devastation.
While Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki is fighting for his political life, and for the territorial integrity of Iraq, El-Sisi while condemning the dangers of militant Islam, welcomed Al-Maliki's call of July 8 for broadening the web of relationships between Cairo and Baghdad. Attacking ISIS and nodding respectfully toward Iraq as a unitary State are clear manifestations of El-Sisi's approach toward this burning issue. In summary, it is a bold attempt to carve out an atmosphere of moderation from the howling winds of an Arab region which is being territorially redrawn.
From all indicators, El-Sisi had evolved beyond a total focus on Egypt, to a focus on Egypt as a serious player in the Arab homeland. For Al-Maliki's call to El-Sisi for "relationships of complimentarity" between the land of the Nile and the land of the Two Rivers, was not born out of thin air. Prior to that, El-Sisi had declared on July 6 at a meeting with Egyptian editors-in-chief that "a plebiscite for the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan would be a catastrophe." No such political backing for the territorial integrity of Arab States -all Arab States - has been voiced with the exception of a reference made to it by Saudi Arabia.
In between the dates of July 6 and July 8, there was the 10th of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan (July 7). Since the 1973 war between Egypt and Israel (Egypt calls it the 10th of Ramadan War; Israel calls it the Yom Kippur War), that day is observed in Egypt as a national day (Day of the Crossing -crossing the Suez Canal to liberate Sinai).
In his speech to the nation, El-Sisi called for national support of the huge effort to rebuild the economy. An essential aspect of that effort is the doing away with the subsidies on petrol, gas, electricity, and other items of national consumption. This is a very hot potato in Egyptian politics. The poor and the middle classes depend on these subsidies to make ends meet. It caused "the bread riots" in February 1977 in Egypt under Sadat. Yet El-Sisi was fearless in declaring that those unpopular measures must stand.
Various heads of Egyptian political parties praised that move which reflected a basic principle: Leaders must lead. The head of the Congress Party (Al-Motamar), Omar Semedah, said: "El-Sisi is the first president who tells the public that it should shoulder its economic recovery responsibilities." A leader of the Wafd Party, Issam Sheeha, welcomed El-Sisi redirection of nationalist fever to national acceptance of shouldering the common burden. Even Al-Noor Party, the political arm of the Salafi movement, stated through its spokesman Sharif Taha: "We applaud his candor, his transparency." As to the Front of National Salvation (Al-Inqaz Al-Watani), its leader, Amre Ali, was by far the most effusive: "El-Sisi has delivered a declaration which, by the standards of Egyptian presidential statements, is very rare."
Another evolutionary trend was manifest in El-Sisi's blunt criticism of the incarceration and the sentencing of the three Al Jazeera reporters. He had previously declared that he would not interfere in judicial rulings. Now he declares: "The sentences had negative consequences," and that he preferred "that the journalists be deported rather than put on trial." I see in this an El-Sisi's edging towards a pardon.
How about the Nile water question? It has stirred deep anxiety on the part of Egypt (and the Sudan) whose share of the Nile waters through the Blue Nile has been fixed by a 1929 treaty. That was at a time prior to the emergence of Ethiopia (the Blue Nile descends from Lake Tana, Ethiopian territory), of the Sudan, and of Egypt from under Italian and British colonialism. While Ethiopia proceeds at present with the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam at the upper reaches of the Blue Nile, both Cairo and Khardoum have been fretting over the possible reduction of their pre-independence share of that precious water.
Under Morsi, an intemperate call went out from a meeting over which he had presided. It was a call for the use of force against Ethiopia. The whole world heard it, because the microphones at that unfortunate war-like conclave were left open. Addis Ababa countered with the legitimate argument of self-defence, and Egypt, even if the Islamists had gone ahead with their stupid threats, had never won in mountain warfare. No win in 1830 in the war in Greece for the Ottoman Sultan during the reign of Muhammad Ali; no win in Yemen in 1962-1967 during the go-go years of Nasser. And the Islamists forgot or ignored the possibility for employing diplomacy through the Coptic Church, a twin historic institution of the Ethiopian Church.
Then the Islamist President Morsi was pushed aside, and General El-Sisi, in a land slide, won the presidency in June 2014. While Morsi, the civilian, saw the water issue through the foggy prism of war, General (new President) El-Sisi saw it through the prism of diplomacy. With Egypt's return to the fold of the African Union at the June African Summit at Malabo, the capital of Equatorial Guinea, El-Sisi saw the golden chance of repairing the frayed feelings of Ethiopia, a co-founder with Egypt of the Organization of African Unity.
Now, following an amicable meeting between El-Sisi and Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Hailemarian Desalegn, an agreement was announced by Egypt's Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, and his Ethiopian counterpart Tedros Adhanom. Its main points included cooperation between the two sister States, and the establishment of regional projects for developing financial resources to meet the growing demand for water. Neat!! A welcome evolution from the use of vinegar to the use of honey!!
Indeed, Darwin said it best: "Survival is for the fittest." Now even the map of Egypt is changing through redrawing provincial boundaries. From 27 Egyptian provinces, the boundaries, as recently declared by Adel Labeeb, Minister for Local Development, may delineate an increase to up to 33 provinces. The new Governors shall be evaluated on the basis of direct interaction with the Egyptian citizen. This is the essence of evolving the meaning of "local rule."
These steps towards rejuvenation did not fail to impact the traditional sources of the tourism industry. Both, Germany and Italy, main sources of thousands of tourists to Egypt, are moving towards full nullification of their advisories to their nationals to avoid visiting Egypt. This is huge!!
Tourism accounts for 20% of Egypt's foreign currency earnings. This explains the genuine alarm of its Ministry of Tourism. In 2013, income from tourism dwindled by 40% as compared to 2012 (from $10 billion to $5.9 billion). Italy alone had sent to Egypt in 2004 one million tourists.
So why shouldn't the Sphinx, hearing about the resumption of the flood of visitors gawking at his feet (I mean paws) be smiling in anticipation? Is it possible that lime stone, of which the Sphinx is made, be also subject to the forces of evolution? The Sphinx has never revealed its inner secrets!!
Friday, July 11, 2014
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Journalism of the Absurd: Thomas Friedman Fantasizes About "ISIS and SISI"!!
In an op-ed article in the New York Times of June 25, 2014, Thomas Friedman writes about "ISIS and SISI." That play on words, for which Friedman is known, shows how low on fact and high on fiction that editorialist can be bracketed. There is nothing in that Friedman column that I find either constructive or conducive to objective understanding of today's turbulent Middle East.
To describe, as Friedman does, ISIS and SISI as "the two dominant Arab governing models: ISIS and SISI" strikes me as simply outlandish. ISIS is a terrorist and murderous cabal; SISI is an Egyptian president whose ascendancy to power was propelled by the victory of secularists over the Islamists. ISIS is a Sunni transient phenomenon with some roots in Syrian and Iraqi sectarianism; SISI is a feature of post-revolutionary Egypt whose cosmopolitanism is rooted in a history of 5000 years.
Where does Friedman find in this reverse of name-spelling "Arab governing models?" Unless he is a seer or a tarot card reader, the "governing model's" thesis is to be found only in the zone of fantasy. The plain logic is that ISIS is on a huge collision course with SISI through the Egyptian/Gulf new axis of stability.
I can understand Friedman's chagrin over the imprisonment in Egypt of three of Al Jazeera journalists. Freedom of the press is an essential ingredient of progress towards democracy. But Friedman does not seem to grasp the following basic facts about the Egyptian Revolution.
It is a work in progress; it embodies the aspirations of the majority of its 90 million inhabitants for dignity and development; it is committed to secularism as the vehicle for the protection of its Coptic minority and for the preservation of its cosmopolitanism; it is the target of Islamic jihadi terrorism; it is opposed to any hint of foreign interference in its internal affairs; it is surrounded by unstable neighbors to the east (the Gaza mess); to the south (the troubled Sudan), and to the west (the Libyan State of militias).
Taking these factors into account, one should feel the pain of an Egyptian society trying to find its way out of 60 years of dictatorship. In the process, the Egyptian judicial over-reaction in the case of Al Jazeera can at least be comprehended, if not condoned. The entire Egyptian judicial process is now under review.
This brings me to discussing the nature of Al Jazeera as a TV channel or channels which is totally funded by Qatar -the mouse that roars. Though patterned along the lines of the BBC, Al Jazeera cannot be weaned away from Qatari influence, and Qatar has been one of the primary supporters of a terrorist organization called the "Muslim Brotherhood." The guru of Al Jazeera is Sheikh Youssef Al-Qaradawi, an Egyptian with a Qatari passport, who has been the oracle of sectarianism in the Muslim world in terms of the persecution of the Shia. That explains in part why Egypt and Qatar today maintain no diplomatic relations, especially after the revelations about Qatari support for Hamas.
Thus talking about the right of Al Jazeera to freely function on Egyptian soil is like allowing a Cuban information medium to function openly in Miami with Castro's funding while Cuba is under U.S. sanctions. It should also be noted here that the U.S., after 9/11, has claimed for security reasons the right to subject Guantanamo inmates to undetermined periods of incarceration without either being charged or be transferred to civilian U.S. courts.
Without any regard to balanced editorial analysis, Mr. Friedman pontificates as follows: "The Arab World needs to finally puncture the twin myths of the military State (SISI) or the Islamic State (ISIS) that will bring prosperity, stability and dignity." Words of superficial gold, but substance of rusty junk. The SISI era has just begun; so judging it after only one month of existence as a "military State" is nothing but animus without reason. By the same token, Friedman's anticipation of the longevity of ISIS as an "Islamic State" is nothing but ignorance and unthinking alarmism. ISIS is a bubble which shall be "punctured," not only by the Arab world, but also by the weight of its murderous overreach.
Friedman offers no credible facts or analysis as to "Why two Arab governing models are doomed." I am on board with him as regards ISIS, but must rebut his non-warranted prediction as regards the El-Sisi regime. From the Egyptian street, I marshal my rebuttal:
To describe, as Friedman does, ISIS and SISI as "the two dominant Arab governing models: ISIS and SISI" strikes me as simply outlandish. ISIS is a terrorist and murderous cabal; SISI is an Egyptian president whose ascendancy to power was propelled by the victory of secularists over the Islamists. ISIS is a Sunni transient phenomenon with some roots in Syrian and Iraqi sectarianism; SISI is a feature of post-revolutionary Egypt whose cosmopolitanism is rooted in a history of 5000 years.
Where does Friedman find in this reverse of name-spelling "Arab governing models?" Unless he is a seer or a tarot card reader, the "governing model's" thesis is to be found only in the zone of fantasy. The plain logic is that ISIS is on a huge collision course with SISI through the Egyptian/Gulf new axis of stability.
I can understand Friedman's chagrin over the imprisonment in Egypt of three of Al Jazeera journalists. Freedom of the press is an essential ingredient of progress towards democracy. But Friedman does not seem to grasp the following basic facts about the Egyptian Revolution.
It is a work in progress; it embodies the aspirations of the majority of its 90 million inhabitants for dignity and development; it is committed to secularism as the vehicle for the protection of its Coptic minority and for the preservation of its cosmopolitanism; it is the target of Islamic jihadi terrorism; it is opposed to any hint of foreign interference in its internal affairs; it is surrounded by unstable neighbors to the east (the Gaza mess); to the south (the troubled Sudan), and to the west (the Libyan State of militias).
Taking these factors into account, one should feel the pain of an Egyptian society trying to find its way out of 60 years of dictatorship. In the process, the Egyptian judicial over-reaction in the case of Al Jazeera can at least be comprehended, if not condoned. The entire Egyptian judicial process is now under review.
This brings me to discussing the nature of Al Jazeera as a TV channel or channels which is totally funded by Qatar -the mouse that roars. Though patterned along the lines of the BBC, Al Jazeera cannot be weaned away from Qatari influence, and Qatar has been one of the primary supporters of a terrorist organization called the "Muslim Brotherhood." The guru of Al Jazeera is Sheikh Youssef Al-Qaradawi, an Egyptian with a Qatari passport, who has been the oracle of sectarianism in the Muslim world in terms of the persecution of the Shia. That explains in part why Egypt and Qatar today maintain no diplomatic relations, especially after the revelations about Qatari support for Hamas.
Thus talking about the right of Al Jazeera to freely function on Egyptian soil is like allowing a Cuban information medium to function openly in Miami with Castro's funding while Cuba is under U.S. sanctions. It should also be noted here that the U.S., after 9/11, has claimed for security reasons the right to subject Guantanamo inmates to undetermined periods of incarceration without either being charged or be transferred to civilian U.S. courts.
Without any regard to balanced editorial analysis, Mr. Friedman pontificates as follows: "The Arab World needs to finally puncture the twin myths of the military State (SISI) or the Islamic State (ISIS) that will bring prosperity, stability and dignity." Words of superficial gold, but substance of rusty junk. The SISI era has just begun; so judging it after only one month of existence as a "military State" is nothing but animus without reason. By the same token, Friedman's anticipation of the longevity of ISIS as an "Islamic State" is nothing but ignorance and unthinking alarmism. ISIS is a bubble which shall be "punctured," not only by the Arab world, but also by the weight of its murderous overreach.
Friedman offers no credible facts or analysis as to "Why two Arab governing models are doomed." I am on board with him as regards ISIS, but must rebut his non-warranted prediction as regards the El-Sisi regime. From the Egyptian street, I marshal my rebuttal:
- There is no sectarianism in Egypt. The fight against the Muslim Brotherhood is not sectarianism by any stretch of imagination;
- Egypt's present economic decline is, by all measures, a temporary paralysis due to the marginalization of the population in Sinai and Nubia, the high rate of unemployment, and the need for more time to have the development projects produce their intended results;
- Egypt's preoccupation with containing its internal Islamic terrorism, which is largely imported from Gaza, undoubtedly has its retarding effects, which is also the case of several other countries facing the same dilemma. Both Nigeria and Algeria are prime examples;
- Emulating President El-Sisi example of forgoing a part of his salary and other property for the national cause of recovery, other Egyptian notables did the same. These included the heads of the Wafd party (El-Sayed Belawi), and of the National Front (General Ahmed Shafiq). So did important businessman (Muhammed Al-Amin and Mansour Amer). In regard to Mansour Amer, he pledged to pay all the costs of construction of the new Cairo University.
- Tourism to Egypt is back; and the new Egypt is gearing up to holding parliamentary elections this summer. The central focus is on inclusiveness and enhancing the representativeness of the previously marginalized groups in Sinai, in Nubia, and in the western desert. Youth, women, and the Copts are expected to win a greater number of parliamentary seats than before.
- Egypt is again rising to see in which ways she and her partners in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and the Emirates might further contain ISIS, Hamas, and a possible third "Palestinian Intifada."
The list of signs of an enduring post-revolutionary Egypt goes on and on, including the re-admission of Egypt to the membership of the African Union. Above all, Egypt has not been subjected to civil war. Its solidity is, in many ways, similar to the solidity of its iconic Giza pyramids.
Mr. Friedman: You may go on with your theoretical fantasies. I sense from your recent commencement speech at the University of Erbil, Iraq; Kurdistan, that you are in hot pursuit of peripheral news items. Now with ISIS calling itself IS (the Islamic State), your little game of words is in danger. That of course unless you try to find a new fictitious resonance between "IS" and "SI."
In my view, major issues of stability and historical transitions should be immunized from your addiction to playing with words. More importantly, it behooves you, as a student of the troubled Middle East, not to proceed from that word play to the slippery slope of fictitious, conclusions. ISIS is not a government model, nor is El-Sisi regime doomed to extinction which you seem to predict.
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