Kicking Arab Allies, Out of Their American Nest; To Fly On Their Own Wings, In Their Own Raging Tempest!!

The diagnosis is positive.  And the symptoms keep on multiplying!!

• King Salman did not attend the Camp David Summit.  America shrugs it off.
• ISIS retakes Ramadi.  America: "So What."
• The Houthis attack Saudi territory from Saada.  America: a big yawn.
• Netanyahu fulminates against a possible US/Iran deal.  America: "We are not there yet."
• The Gulf might go nuclear.  America: "It cannot threaten us."
• France is busy planning for a UN resolution in Palestine.  America: "Nothing to worry about."
• Multi-Billion dollar contracts for armament from Europe to the Arabs.  America: "It is their money."
• China and Russia are gaining influence in the Arab Middle East.  America: "Good Luck."

The Obama administration has prepared America for a Hillary administration in 2016.  It shall take a miracle to have a Republican President in 2016.  And Barack is bequeathing to Hillary a solid new foreign policy framework for the US through at least 2020.  No more American breast-feeding of the Arabs.  In fact none to any others.

Back to the Future, America!!  Back to President Washington's advice: "No entangling alliances."  Well - How about the Monroe Doctrine of gunboat diplomacy in South America?  No more.  Obama buried it in Panama in April, 2015 at the Summit of the Americas.  His Panama statement reflected the new principle of "America First."  

As America reconciled with Cuba after 55 years of enmity and sanctions, Obama postulated a new global Obama doctrine.  He said: 

"So often, when we insert ourselves in ways that go beyond persuasion, it's counterproductive; it backfires.  That is why countries keep on trying to use us as an excuse for their own governance failures.  Let's take away the excuse."

Whether as an American you are a democrat, a republican, or an independent, this, in our age of chaos, makes sense.  It has made sense for Canada and Scandinavia and the rest of Europe for a long time.  How do we know?  They are not a constant target for terror and adverse propaganda.  Subject to hit and miss, yes.  But we see no banners proclaiming, "Death to Europe," or "Canada is Satan," or "Go Home Swedes."  

How does this apply to the Arabs?  Plenty.  Dependency on America is no longer acceptable.  It is costly; America no longer needs Arab oil as it now produces 85% of its energy needs.  The U.S. of today is the new OPEC.  And none is going to challenge American naval supremacy guaranteeing the freedom of navigation.  The Arabs are free to sulk.  They have to do in defense and diplomacy with the precious little America can afford to give them.

This is clearly reflected in Obama's policy positions at the Camp David Gulf Summit.  No strategic defense alliances or guarantees.  The U.S. shall help on a case by case basis.  The Arabs are neither Japan nor Israel.  Washington shall offer arms and logistics.  That is it.  No American shall die fighting another war in the Middle East.  And America shall select its own type of involvement in the war on terror.

These are not my views, nor are they my early warning signals.  These are positions which are now in place.  They are elucidated by those who have the ears of the Obama administration, and damn whatever the Republicans might scream about in opposition.

Clear demonstrations were offered early this week by Robert Gates, former CIA Director, and former Defense Secretary under both Bush II and Obama.  Interviewed on May 19 on MSNBC, a progressive channel, here are selections of the questions by a panel and Gates responses:

"Who created ISIS?"  Answer: "The Syrian civil war and Maliki's sectarianism."  "So why did the US, during your tenure, support Maliki for the post of Iraq's Prime Minister?"  Answer: "Because we felt that his weakness will force him to work inclusively with all other sectors: Sunnis, Kurds, and Shiis.  But when we left, he showed his true colors as an extreme Shii."  "What are your expectations about the present turmoil in the Arab World?"  Answer: "It shall go on for a very long time."  "What is the expected outcome?"  Answer: "Possibly the fate of Yugoslavia, especially as regards Syria and Iraq.  These two are artificial States."  "Whom should we support in the Arab World?"  Answer: "Our traditional friends."

Does this mean America is back to isolation?  No.  It means that America, while unburdening itself from the chaos in the Middle East, is finding in Asia, through trade, better alternatives.  It still regards itself as indispensable.  Even in the absence of a coherent global policy.  So it is pivoting toward its interior, concerned about being number 24 in the world in infra-structure modernization.  Pivoting toward Asia and the Pacific is a part of the solution.

In pivoting toward Asia and the Pacific, America shall not be too critical about issues of human rights in China or Russia.  Its primary concerns are that its economic ranking might become number two after China's.  And if America may appear weak to its detractors (no US action on Assad crossing Obama's red lines), the fact remains that America is still the only super power on the world stage.  Even with Putin not budging from his position on the Ukraine, or his schemes regarding Latvia.

Its exercise of military power abroad shall be both limited and selective.  Its number one priority is the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).  Republican opposition to the TPP has been shredded.  That opposition had nothing to do with the issue of American jobs.  It had to do with Republican hatred of China which, by all measures, is more than their hatred of Obama.

America's ideology toward Europe has become at variance with that of Europe.  The difference lies mainly in America leaving the leadership role to Germany.  Thus America is lessening its emphasis on philosophical questions of how best to enhance human rights and how to boost the ideals of western democracy.

To America, the South China Sea has more priority economically than the North Sea.  It is not even pre-occupied with the possible break-up of the United Kingdom.  On a bilateral basis, the number one priority for America is its relationships with China and India.  The present framework of that relationship is "the weaponization of trade and finance."  A freshly-minted American term.

How about the issues of the Gulf?  America is now defanging its sanctions weapon everywhere.  This has been done in the case of Cuba.  Iran's next.  But wouldn't this anger Saudi Arabia?  Well, Washington's approach, as guided by the principle of "America First," is to balance its relationships between Tehran and Riyadh.

The expectation is a split between Washington and Riyadh.  Washington seems now to be resigned to a greater Iranian role in Iraq, which is expected to see no Iraqi territorial unity.  Washington sees in the recent fall of Ramadi again to ISIS, the advantage of Shii forces footprint.  Better for America than US footprint.

And what captivates America now about the New Egypt?  Cairo's activism in the economic reconstruction of the New Egypt; its persistent confrontation of terrorism in Sinai and the interior, and Western Sahara; and above all, El-Sisi's call for "a religious revolution."  America regards that call as a possible turning point in the containment of jihadism.

Hence the repeated criticism in America of the non-responsiveness by other Arab and Muslim States in support of a reinvigorated role by Al-Azhar to make that historic call a reality.

Reflecting the behind the moment thinking, an Arab writer opines in an article from Paris a faulty advice on "The Gulf-US Alliance."  Mr. Mutaa Safadi counsels: "After the Camp David Summit, it is high time for Gulf leaders to liberate themselves from the bondage of friendship with America."  This happens to be the prevailing theme in Arab media.  It is a faulty theme because the only reality is the reverse.  It is the U.S. which is now liberating itself from the bondage of a suffocating friendship with the Arabs.

Iraq was a slow though huge turning point in that strategic change in America's outlook.  An American analyst, David Brooks, puts it succinctly in his op. ed. column in the New York Times of May 19.  Under the title of "Learning from Mistakes," Brooks says: "Iraq teaches us to be suspicious of leaders who try to force revolutionary, transformative change.  It teaches us to have respect for trimmers, leaders who pay minute attention to context, who try to lead gradual but constant change."

This is a seismic shift in US strategy towards the unbrave new world.  Watching it nearly daily, as I do, I find its birth certificate.  The year 2007.  That is when I was in Iraq.  Asking 4 marines at Camp Victory, separately:  "What is your most cherished wish?"  Their answers were uniform.  "Sir!!"  "To go home!!"  It was not a yearning for simply going home.  Those were members of the best fighting machine in the world saying: "I am no longer for wars in the Middle East."

Obama won his campaign of 2007 largely on this promise: "I shall end these wars!!"  It was a reformulation of: "Our long national nightmare is over!!"  A new patriotic American adage.  Obama is satisfying those marines' best held wish.  Semper Fi.  "Always Loyal."  A marine oath.  Loyalty now is to "America First."

The Camp David Summit was the notarization of "America shall no longer fight the wars of others."  Even if Saudi Arabia might continue to sulk.  The American bald eagle wants its nest all for itself.

To some extent, the same applies to Israel.  Netanyahu is frothing at the mouth in anger.  His memory is dulled by his own anti-peace policies.  Otherwise, he would have benefited by what Hillary, as Secretary of State, told him about Iran.  In effect, she is reported to convey to the Israelis: "If you strike Iran, we cannot help you."

Bad news for the Republicans.  That war party is out of touch.  And Hillary is expected to be the first female American president.  Semper Fi for "America First."

It is high time for the Arabs to see the writing on the wall.

Apparently Cairo has been ahead in deciphering that message.  As of 2014, it adopted El-Sisi's call for "A Strong Egypt" (Al-Dawlah Al-Qawiyyah).  Regardless of the carping of the under-educated Egyptian media wondering in vain: "What have we accomplished in two years!!"  Leaning forward to steer the Egyptian ship across the 60-year old cataracts takes time.

Now is the time for the Arabs to abide by the wisdom of their great poem: "For Scratching Your Skin; The Best Tool is Your Finger Nail; For none Can Mind Your Business; Like Yourself Minding Your Store!!"  (In Arabic: Ma Hakka Jildaka Methlo Zofrek; Fa Tawalla Anta Jameea Amrek).