In Iraq, the fissures were already there under Maliki, the former Prime Minister of an Iraq orphaned by lack of truly national leaders. Maliki, a Shiite boss who commands allegiance centered on Tehran, saw a mirage of an Iraq dominated only by Shiis. Not by an amalgam of all Iraqi sects. Neither the Sunnis of the great North, nor the Kurds of Iraqi Kurdistan saw in Maliki the visage of national unity. For he was a divider, not a uniter. His ethos was "divide and misrule."
Pandering to his handlers in Tehran, he refused to sign a security agreement with the U.S. That was before the American military turned tail, and completely departed from the "Land of the Two Rivers." In the wake of that withdrawal, was a Sunni dormant volcano ready to erupt in the face of the Sectarian-in-Chief Maliki. Bremer, the genius of a misguided American invasion of Iraq in 2003, had disbanded the huge Iraqi army. An insane blunder for which America dearly paid.
That formidable Iraqi military machine had been officered for years by highly-trained Sunni general officers. Now, without jobs in Anbar, Mosul and Faluja, highly trained but unemployed, imbued with Iraqi nationalism, but excommunicated by the Baghdad Shii-powered structure, they readily welcomed ISIS. An act of Qassass, revenge, against Maliki.
Acting on the basis of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" (sectarian Maliki v. Sunni north), this cadre of battle-tested military were a boon to Al-Baghadi of ISIS. It was an alliance to which the tribal leadership of the north and west were eager to seek out and pay homage to. The tribal leadership of Tikrit, and other Saddam geographic centers of power, had been humiliated by both the American invaders, and by their shii-based Iraqi successors.
They saw in ISIS an entity through which they could hit back at their tormentors. And hit they did. By the huge American-made arsenal, nearly trillion-dollar worth of the best offensive equipment money can buy. ISIS knew the Sunni desire for revenge: They have been in bed with them in Iraq, even before ISIS was an ISIS fighting in Syria to topple Assad.
The field was clear. In both Iraq (north and west), and in Syria (north and east), you could see no border markings. I was there as a defense attorney. It was, and continues to be the biggest no man's land in the world. TERRA NULIUS!!
Having been declared by Al-Qaeda as too brute, and by Al-Nusra as too independent, and by the world as an outlaw, ISIS reality showed its ugly face. Through a different modus operandi moving massively eastward astride both Syrian and Iraqi territory; cease the no man's land and hold it; inherit the Sunni desire for revenge against the shiis; re-employ Saddam's battle-hardened colonels and generals.
More importantly, declare a caliphate -the Muslim equivalent of an imperial system!! It evokes memories of a robust governance which could put an end to Islamophobia and the humiliation of Muslims in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Palestine of the mandates. No more Guantanamos; no more Abu Ghraibs; no more Pagrams; no more collaboration of peace between Arab capitals and the West, including Israel. Payback time through a caliphate, headed by Abu-Bakr Al-Baghdadi. Hail to the Caliphate, and come you all disgruntled young from the West and East, and cleanse the Middle East from all vestiges of westernism, including even Christian Arabs!!
In a matter of days, the newly trumpeted caliphate had two capitals: Raqqa in Syria, Mosul in Iraq. Oil fields, and huge water dams were targeted; the shias had no real army in Iraq, only disjointed militias; the collapse of the Iraqi army of the north proved the falsehood of the modern State; over the necks of western hostages, knives were a tool of terror; over the modern tanks abandoned by leaderless Iraqi recruits, black banners fluttered with the familiar inscriptions of "Allah, and Muhammad, His Messenger." Neither Allah nor Muhammad have anything to do with that barbarism.
Various jihadi factions declared their fealty to the new phantom caliphate, including the Friends of Jerusalem, a Hamas offshoot, which went as far as declaring Sinai of Egypt an emirate of the new caliphate. A pie in the sky.
The hit and run acts of the Muslim Brotherhood, now declared a terrorist organization in the largest Arab State demographically (Egypt), were celebrated. ISIS called it, through social media, the beginning of the collapse of El-Sisi government, and of the restoration of the faschist Islamic rule of 2012-2013 in the heart of Arab lands.
And when the anti-ISIS international coalition of 60 countries was declared and began raining bombs on ISIS command and central centers, ISIS called the campaign against terrorism a campaign against Islam itself. Through confrontations at holy sites in the West Bank and Jerusalem, between Palestinians and Israelis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was changing labels: from a territorial conflict into a bloody religious conflict. A huge assist to the propaganda machine of ISIS.
But can all of this chaos translate into an ISIS durability and longevity? Absolutely not. Through all sorts of default, ISIS lives. And through the same defaults it shall gradually die. Here is why:
- The international anti-ISIS coalition is fast learning. Air campaigns shall gradually be supplemented by foot soldiers from the localities affected;
- The Sunni-Shii divide, exasperated by jihadi propaganda and Western Islamophobia, shall eventually shrink. This is being done by age-old solid institutions, such as Al-Azhar of Egypt. And by the centralization of sources of fatwas in various Muslim countries;
- Weak institutional responses to ISIS and other jihadi organizations have been the hallmark of inter-State systems, such as the UN, the League of Arab States, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
- These organizations are now being sidelined by more robust non-governmental organizations which are less bureaucratic and more adept in confronting false jihadi propaganda. They are more suitable to deal with the actions of non-State actors as regards recruitment, funding and mission-statements.
- Anti-jihadi forces are quickly learning from their jihadi adversaries. Military training is accelerated; modern technology is being employed; nationalism is overwhelming their daydreams of a caliphate; Islamic law (Sharia) is being learnt; protection of minority rights is being rediscovered; parliamentary systems are being refashioned to suit the environments of Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain; women empowerment is becoming a national objective in several Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia.
- Assad may stay on, but eventually presiding over a partitioned Syria; the Islamic militancy by which Turkey and Qatar are approaching their neighbors is not gaining traction especially in the New Egypt; and Iran is struggling to find a middle ground between its sovereign right to nuclear energy and western fears of proliferation of nuclear arms.
It is indeed tragic that some Western analysts seem to have become spell-bound by the din of jihadi self-aggrandizing publicity. A recent example could be here cited by "An Analysis" posted online by, George Friedman of Geopolitical Weekly, dated November 25, 2104. Its title is "The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East." A tantalizing title for an article which dealt mainly with various readjustments in external policies by Middle Eastern Arab States. The author was off the mark where he described ISIS as "a new territorial power in Syria and Iraq." Sound analysis?! No!! Alarmism: Yes!! Slowly but surely, anti-jihadi forces are rising, organizing and coalescing.
The dream of Al-Baghdadi of flying his ISIS black flag over the White House in Washington or over Al-Ittihadyia Palace in Cairo, or over Mecca and Medina, shall in the long term prove to be less credible than the flying carpet of Ali Baba and the Forty-Thieves!!
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