Friday, February 15, 2013

The Muslim Brotherhood Versus The Salafis: Divided They Stand at the Helm of Power In Egypt

Together they won 70% of the seats in Parliament.  Though the Parliament (the lower chamber) has been dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court on a technicality, the forthcoming parliamentary elections promise the same results.  Through the highway of democracy, an era of Islamist rule has begun in Egypt .

What does this mean for Egypt?  Though nothing can be certain in any revolutionary setting anywhere in the world, there are a few road signs.

First: The Brotherhood and the Salafis say that they are friends, but they are not united.  The former are largely moderate, the latter are definitely extremist.  There respective political parties (the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, and the Salafis' Al-Nour Party) are at loggerheads with one another.  Divided they both stand for the term "Islamists."  That division has so far not been bridged even by the fact that Morsi, with his roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, is now the popularly-elected president of Egypt.

Second: If healed, the division within the ranks of the Islamists could lead to a functional rapprochement with the secularists.  Without that, the Egyptian street could remain chaotic for a long period.  And with chaos, the new Egypt shall not be able to shake off its economic misery.  It is the economic decline that has been propelling the young and unemployed to the streets to cause destruction and mayhem.

Third: Thrown in the mix of the endless cycle of violence are two main factors.  The Egyptian police and the security forces, who are traditionally distrusted, are hated by the masses since the Mubarak days.  Their task in quelling mob action has been made more complicated by the recently-acquired capability of the demonstrators to fight tear gas with tear gas, and bird shots with home-made Molotov cocktails.  The other factor in that deadly mix is the understandable reluctance of the armed forces to get dragged in those street battles.

By staying above the fray, the armed forces have remained the darling of the masses, and the only cohesive force in the largest Arab country whose population has now surpassed 90 millions.

From the reality of political division within Egypt, to the ideological thinking which is now taking hold in the land of the pharaohs, we see the Arab Spring's inability to fulfill its promise: dignity, democracy, and development. 

The Brotherhood espouses the mantra of "Islam is the solution," while the Salafis adhere to the necessity for "the return to the practices of early Islam." (Salaf means ancestor, in this case in the spiritual sense).  On the surface, the two ideological principles may look the same.  In reality, they are not.  For the Brotherhood, Islamism accommodates evolution in interpretation; for the Salafis, literalism of the text defines Islamism.  Thus one can visualize the Muslim Brotherhood as standing for evolution, and the Salafis as the party for creationism.  In governance, the gulf becomes even larger as it impacts on the daily life of a cosmopolitan country like Egypt.

At least for now, the Brotherhood and the Salafis look more like the most durable political forces in Egypt. Both groups have emerged from the street and have remained the closest of the entire political spectrum in Egypt to the street.  They, especially the Muslim Brotherhood since its inception in 1928, have known what makes the street tick, what basic services does it need, what language does it understand.  Al-Azhar, for the last 1040 years, has always been the fount of Islamic learning and the Mecca of interfaith, especially in regard to the great Coptic church.  But Al-Azhar has always remained an educational institution and a lightening rod for patriotism, but not a vehicle for street organization.

Thus, the Egyptian revolutionary experience in the post-Mubarak era, may eventually parallel the Turkish experience: Islamist rule which tolerates diversity, with the armed forces keeping watch over internal and external security.

Within this framework, the call for a dialogue between the various political forces in Egypt, whose only organized element is the Islamist, remains elusive.  The secularists are calling for the return to square one of the Egyptian Revolution.  This in effect means the delegitimation of the previous popular votes including the referendum on the new Constitution.  The Islamist, comfortable at the helm of legislative and executive power, are calling for respect of the popular will, the status quo.

Neither the Islamists nor the secularists shall be able to make the daily demonstrations go away.  In the meantime, the Egyptian street, though weary of the split within the ranks of the Islamists, is more weary of the altercation amongst the seventy political parties and movements.  But progressively, the voice of the secularists is losing its resonance with the millions who are hungry for stability, and a better life.

The only strong thread which is holding the ship of the Egyptian State Egypt, together, regardless of affiliations is the slogans."WE ALL LOVE EGYPT"

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