Friday, November 30, 2012

In Egypt: A Catastrophe May Be On The Way

On Thursday, November 22, President Morsi issued a decree.  That was no ordinary decree.  He called it "a constitutional decree" which, in effect, put him above the law.  In the absence of a constitution, Morsi declared that until the new constitution is drafted and ratified, his writ is law.  With that, the first popularly elected President of Egypt, a historic byproduct of the January 25, 2011 revolution, in effect, became both the executive and legislative branches of Government.  As to the third branch, the judiciary, it was neutralized -no judicial review of his decrees.

Guess who got angry, in fact very angry, without the benefit of anger-management -the judges.  They declared a strike.  Courts were closed, except for chambers dealing with issues which cannot wait.  With that, nearly all other professional associations, including the medical, press, and Bar Associations, went also on strike.  Millions poured in Tahrir and similar public squares to denounce their new President whose roots lie deep in the Muslim Brotherhood.  Some of the demonstrators went as far as calling him "Mussolini."  Others called him "the new Pharaoh."

What is this all about? Prime Minister Qandeel warns "Either we build.  Or we shed blood."  President Morsi addresses the nation soothingly saying: "I am the President of all Egyptians.  My decree is only for 2 to 4 months.  It will end with the adoption of the new constitution."  Dr. El-Baradei, the oracle for democracy in Egypt announces "A constitution which is rushed out from the Constituent Assembly will be worth the refuse basket."  Farouk Gouida, the great intellectual posits that "the Egyptian public shall never again condone any form of the old authoritarianism."  And the Chief Editor of Al-Ahram, the official newspaper of the Egyptian government, Abdel-Nasser Salamah, headlines on November 30: "The Egyptian situation may be decided by the intervention of the armed forces."  This means a military coup against the New Egypt.

A catastrophe may be on its way.  A possible civil war threat hangs over the blue skies of Egypt.

It all began with the Islamists winning 70% of the seats in the post-Mubarak freely-elected Parliament.  Of those, 50% for the Muslim Brotherhood -a middle of the road Islamist movement, and 20% for the Salafis, an extreme Islamist group which is heavily influenced by Saudi Arabia's wahabbism.  The rest of the seats were won by the liberal parties which include the Copts.

Enters the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC), towards which the Islamists, including President Morsi, harbor deep mistrust.  These venerable judges were not only Mubarak appointees.  Their rulings were like high bumps on the Islamists' road to pre-eminence in the governance of the new Egypt.  The SCC, finding a technical fault in the elections of the lower house of Parliament, (seats which were to be filled by individuals were grabbed by political parities) dissolved Parliament, except for the upper house (the Shoura).

But with Morsi now at the Presidential Palace in Cairo, he refused to accept that judicial activism.  So he called the dissolved Chamber into a 20 minute session for one purpose: to have it vote a transfer of legislative power to him temporarily pending: drafting of the new constitution; voting on it in a referendum; the re-constitution of a new parliament; the definition of the role of the judiciary as a third branch of a democratic system of government.

These moves were not immediately challenged by Egypt's judiciary which, in the new Egypt, has begun to flex its muscles, the muscles of a truly independent judiciary.  But the judiciary was not yet done with the Islamists in the new Egypt.  The judges had the Constituent Assembly (CA) in their cross-hairs.  The battle between the Islamists and the secularists was being waged by the convenient proxy of the judiciary.  The CA was dissolved by the SCC before, but its successor CA was handpicked by the Islamists.

The secularists in the new CA (the committee of 100) were the auxiliaries of the SCC.  Their lower number on the CA was magnified by a greater clout in Tahrir Square.  Thus while the battles of drafting raged on within the confines of the CA, the secularists decided to try to paralyze its rush to the production of a pro-Islamist constitution.  They walked out of the meetings of the CA, depriving it at one point, of 25% of its membership.

But a quorum stayed on the job: Article 2 provided that "the principles" of Islamic Law (Sharia) were a principal source of legislation.  The Salafis grumbled.  "The principles" is a term that does not provide for textual adherence to Islamic law.  But the Muslim Brothers in the CA, supported by the secularists including the copts and women, ignored that militant fringe.  And Al-Azhar which is represented on the CA gave the secularist wing in the CA a big boost.  After all, Al-Azhar stand is that "Islam does not recognize a state based solely on religion."

Now the Supreme Constitutional Court was getting ready to stop the Constituent Assembly in its tracks.  By now, the defections from the CA have reached 30%, and the SCC was aiming at dissolving that body, in order to clear the way for the selection by the Shoura (the only Chamber of Parliament which was left standing) of a new body to draft the new constitution.

In that chaotic inter-institutional environment, Morsi, fearful of the void (no Lower Parliamentary Chamber; no constitution) went for an over-reach- a "constitutional declaration." And Egypt exploded, in spite of Morsi's explanation that he only intended to bring the transition to a close.  Poetically, he intoned, that it was "a difficult birth from the womb of an ancient nation."

He and the Islamists felt that rushing the draft of the new constitution by the existing CA was the only dam to forestall the mighty waves for the soul of Egypt.  On November 30, the battle lines were more than lines in the sand.  The judiciary, faced with that grand play for power by Morsi and the Constituent Assembly, decided to close down the courts.  Millions poured out on the streets screaming "IRHAL" (Leave) to Morsi, and the violent competition for the soul of Egypt, either secularist or Islamist, was on. "The Great Explosion" was already happening.  The millions, from the two opposing forces, were back in Tahrir and in many other squares all over that historic land.  And soon flames enveloped many centers of the Muslim Brotherhood.

"The rapacious appropriation of power," the anti-Morsi forces declared, "shall not be allowed to stand."

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