Friday, September 7, 2012

Without Fanfare Egypt Resumes Its Regional Leadership Role

One of the most memorable songs of the Broadway Musical, "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying" is "I believe in You!!"  In it, the singer, down on his luck for a long time, looks at himself in the mirror and sings that song of self-assurance.  The Egyptian Revolution of January 25, 2011 is a historical musical of self-assurance.

Yes, the economy is in tatters; women and copts are still concerned about their civil rights in an Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood is ascendant; the bedouins in Sinai are restless; tourism is only a trickle; and the infrastructure has been crumbling for a long time.

But____But this is not a permanent scene.  The potential is quite different.  Egypt's huge demographics (nearly 90 million) will gradually have their impact on development.  The marginalized bedouins of Sinai top the list for infrastructure enhancement.  The crowded Nile valley will systematically be drained from human congestion, eastward to Sinai and westward to the great western desert all the way to the Libyan border.  The problem of sharing the Nile waters between nine riparian States will be solved through renegotiation of the Treaty of 1929.  In all of this, the security of the Egyptian street is being ensured.

Of equal importance, the Hisham Qandeel Government is seeking economic and financial and technological partnership everywhere - from the shores of the Red Sea and the Gulf, to China, Japan and Australia, to the US and the European Union.  President Morsi's first trip outside of Egypt was to China where cooperation agreements for $6 billion were concluded.

Nearly simultaneously, large business delegations organized by the U.S. Government and the Chamber of Commerce representing fifty U.S. corporations, descended upon Cairo.  They have their aspirations as well as their concerns.  These concerns revolved around Egyptian bureaucratic barriers inherited from the past and impeding foreign investments.  And the Morsi regime was ready to oblige.  The U.S. Government, encouraged by the present progress toward democracy, was also keen on reducing Cairo's debt to Washington, D.C. by $1 billion, coupled with other grants and debt rescheduling.

Moreover, the International Monetary Fund moved in the same direction of helping the Egyptian economy.  Until now, negotiations are proceeding between the Egyptian government and the IMF regarding Egypt's request for a $4.8 billion loan.  Judging by the past performance of the IMF (who can forget the 1977 bread riots during the Sadat regime because of the stringent demands of the IMF?), opposition arose against the IMF loan project.  Leading the popular charge against dealing with the IMF was the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP).  The FJP was calling on Prime Minister Qandeel not to proceed with those negotiations until all "internal alternatives" are exhausted.  A romantic idea, in the face of the realities of present day Egypt!!  Thus the opposition was ignored, especially when the Islamic concept of "necessity" was invoked as a response to silence that criticism.

In the midst of this euphoria, Egypt's march towards democracy was being assisted by civil rights organizations.  Among those NGOs was the National Council for Human Rights which submitted to the new Justice Minister of Egypt, Ahmed Makki, no less than ten proposed bills.  All of those proposals aimed at enhancing personal freedoms and civil rights.  Topping these proposals were: a unified law for the construction of places of worship: mosques, churches and synagogues; a law governing NGO's; a law on the freedom of assembly and the right to peaceful demonstration.

Included in that bundle of proposed laws was a bill dealing with equal opportunity and non-discrimination.  It provided for non-discrimination on the basis of religion, language, gender or social status in education and employment.  Violators, the bill stated, would be punished by 6 months to a year of imprisonment, together with monetary fines reaching up to two-hundred thousand Egyptian pounds ($34 thousand).

As to family values as advocated by some members of the Muslim Brotherhood, such as extolling women subservience to men, this advocacy is expected to go nowhere.  A non-starter!!  For the first popular demonstration in Cairo in the 1860's was the historic march by women during which they ripped the veils off their faces and trampled them under foot.

The new Egypt is finding its post-revolutionary feet internally and regionally.  Its natural leadership role is being resumed without fanfare.  In Iran, the only regional ally of the killer regime of Bashar Al-Assad of Syria, President Morsi, at the meeting of the non-aligned States, called on Al-Assad to step down.  In the context of the newly-found freedoms of the Arab masses, consultations regarding a sub-regional alliance of post-dictatorship States are taking place.  The deal with Egypt, Libya and Tunisia which are a geographic continuum from west of Gaza to eastern Algeria.

A new Arab world is being born, with Cairo, the headquarters of the League of Arab States, is showing the way towards internal development and external independence from the sway of big powers.  Egypt seems to be looking at itself in the mirror, singing out, despite its present difficulties, "I believe in you!!"

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