In Egypt, Is There a Revolution II?

News from the Egyptian Street and Media Translated Without Comment from Arabic into English As a Public Service
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Yes.  The volcanoes in Tahrir and elsewhere have erupted again.  And with clashes came casualties.  The scenes give the impression that the January 25 Revolution has not yet spent itself.  But why?

The only clear answer which may not be the only answer is that “the Mother of the Arab Spring” is weary of the intentions of the SCAF (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces).  Having lived under a military dictatorship since July 23, 1952, the 90-million strong Egyptians are trying to show the SCAF the exit door.  They are hungry for the pre-1952 Egypt: a multi-party democracy which was anchored in the 1923 Constitution, but this time without the King.

But the SCAF has not said that it wants to stay beyond the elections, perhaps in 2013, of a President.  What seems to have caused the eruption is the ambiguity of the SCAF declarations.  That ambiguity has expressed its content in rumors.  It is well known that in the absence of credible information, resulting from dictatorship, rumors acquire the force of established facts.

Other factors have compounded the dangers of the November 18 eruptions or Revolution II: the hesitant decision-making by the civilian government of Dr. Essam Sharaf, whose resignation might become a reality.  The populace accuses it of being a rubber stamp for the SCAF.  Though the Sharaf Cabinet includes a Minister for Democratic transformation, Dr. Aly El-Salamy, the march towards the promised land of democracy looks to the anxious public as moving at snail’s pace.

On top of that, one finds a genuine apprehension of the emergence of the new Egypt as a religious entity.  Though the Egyptians, whether Muslims or Copts, are by nature a religious people (monotheism began in Egypt under Akhenaton thousands of years ago), there is fear of the eventual assumption by the so-called “Islamists” of power through the upcoming elections.  Both the Copts and the liberal parties are genuinely concerned about this eventuality.  Such a development would also be abhorrent to women who have reasserted their role, through the Arab Spring, in Egyptian civil society.

It should be also noted that Al-Azhar (the Glorious) has asserted in its document of August 17, drafted by both Muslim and Coptic leaders, that “Islam does not recognize State based on religion.”  But such assurances have been overwhelmed by yet other immediate concerns, namely, the role of the military in the Egypt of the future.

Suspicion of the SCAF, whether rightly or wrongly, is rooted in an article in what is now called “The Declaration of Principles of the Constitution of Modern Egypt.”  That article, “Article 9” states among other things that: “… The Armed Forces have a special status and have their own detailed concerns which relate to national security, and which have to be taken into account when considering their technical matters and budget…  The Armed Forces shall have their Supreme Council which is charged with the exclusive responsibility of considering all their concerns.  The views of that Supreme Council shall be sought in all legislation affecting the Armed Forces before the promulgation of such legislation…”

Article 9, therefore, looks to the millions in Tahrir and elsewhere in Egypt, as creating an exceptional status for the Armed Forces by putting them either above civilian authority or parallel to that authority.  Democratic Egypt rejects such interpretation although the document containing it says that these articles are only “Constitutional Guidelines.”  This is again another cause for concern agitating the masses which call for the establishment of a Constituent Assembly after the parliamentary elections.  The task of the Constituent Assembly is the drafting of a new Constitution.  Thus Tahrir asks: “Why have Guidelines at all” to the basic law document which should be left for its elected authors?

There are even further concerns for the Tahrir masses.  These masses say: “Why has that Document replaced the term a secular State by the term a democratic State?”

In the midst of all these ambiguities, arguments, demonstrations and casualties including fatalities, the biggest concern now is: “In which direction is the Egyptian Revolution --- the Mother of the Arab Spring --- heading??”