Chaos, chaos, everywhere!! Official reports are the equivalent of the writing on the wall. Just compare the statistics of 2012 to those of 2011: Homicide: up by 130%; armed burglary up by 350%. Crime, overall was at a record of 5814 in 2012, compared to 2778 in 2011; felonies doubled to 40,220; kidnapping accounted for 258; rape for 109; arson: 632; burglaries: 9284; car theft: 20,375. Those ominous statistics were culled from all provinces. This is not to mention 20,000 recorded criminals who took advantage of this security collapse and fled from jail.
The managing editor of Al-Ahram newspaper, the official newspaper of the regime, Ahdel-Nasser Salameh, headlined on January 25, 2013: "Our Revolution is in the Balance!!" That was the date of the Revolution's second anniversary. Collaboration turned into a day of mourning, especially at the major cities of the Suez Canal (Port Said, Ismailia and Suez). Mr. Salameh summed up Egypt's dilemma in few sub-headings: "We are confronting a huge disappointment. The Revolution failed to be convincing to large sectors of our population. The people are now asking whether January 25 ushered in a revolution. History may shame us all. The ruling authorities cannot govern alone by themselves."
From a beautiful dream to an ugly nightmare. And on January 26, 2013, President Morsi declared a state of emergency from 9:00 PM to 5:00 AM in the Suez Canal area. Then when the public defied the curfew hours, the president blinked. He left the management and the duration of the curfew to the local authorities in the Suez Canal area. Wild and uncontrollable demonstrations had erupted in Port Said and Suez. The chaos in Egypt took various forms: thousands of protesters were against sentencing those accused of killing soccer fans a year ago in Port Said; celebrating the second anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution by major riots in support of the Morsi regime and in rebellion against it; denunciation of the Muslim Brotherhood by the secularists and counter-denunciation of the secularists by the Islamists; continuation of the conflict between the judiciary and the executive authorities; and the economic collapse of the largest Arab country, namely Egypt.
Where did the beautiful dream of a transition to democracy in Egypt go? The country of 90 millions was thought to be preparing for parliamentary elections shortly under its new Constitution. The upper chamber, the Shura Council, is now reconstituted and is wielding legislative powers pending the results of those elections. President Morsi is thought to have had wrestled power from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), and the military position in the power structure of the new Egypt is now defined by the Constitution. So has been the judicial authority whose independence was detailed in that Constitution.
Events on the ground is proving that sovereign power cannot be solely guaranteed on paper. Not even on the parchment of the new Constitution. Nobody seems to be happy with their share of power. Morsi is accused of being subservient to the Islamists; the National Salvation Front (NSF), representing the opposition and coordinated by Dr. El-Baradei, is hopelessly fragmented; the security on the Egyptian street remains unattainable; the infrastructure is in dire straits; the young remain unemployed; and the Copts are doubtful about their future security and their freedom of practice in the new Egypt.
How about a dialogue amongst the antagonistic factions? President Morsi has been calling for such a dialogue. The NSF had rejected these calls declaring that they were intended to buy time for a regime they abhor.
Then came a dire warning on January 29. 2013, issued by General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt's Minister of defense. In a speech at the Cairo Military Academy (Egypt's equivalent of West Point in the U.S.) he said, "The political, economic, social and security challenges which face Egypt today represent a veritable threat to its security and cohesiveness. The persistence of conflict among the various political forces and their disagreement regarding administering the country may lead to Egypt's collapse."
Then in pointed remarks to the basic mission of the Egyptian armed forces, the General said: "The Egyptian army will remain the solid and cohesive rock and the strong pillar on which Egypt rests. It is the army of all Egyptians, regardless of their group affiliations."
One does not have to be a mind reader to decipher what El-Sisi was hinting at: The possibility of a military intervention which would suspend Egypt's march toward democratic rule. Now it was the turn of the opposition to blink. The National Salvation Front agreed to sit with the Islamists and the other forces to sort out their differences in order to save Egypt's transition to democracy.
Summing up the state of the Egyptian State, one has to conclude that with regard to Egypt of 10,000 years:
COLLAPSE NEVER!! CHANGE OF REGIME NOT UNTHINKABLE!!
No comments:
Post a Comment